Growth still positive but slowing as tight monetary policy and elevated rates begin to bite.
The economy remains resilient but monetary policy is restrictive (Fed funds at 3.64%). The yield curve is flat at 34.00%. Growth is decelerating and the risk of a policy-induced slowdown is rising. Historically, this phase precedes a slowdown or recession within 12–18 months.
Key Signals
Regime Spectrum
Forward P/E ratios vs. 10-year historical averages — major indices, every GICS sector, and key industries.Trailing PE updated 5:51:01 PM.
S&P 500 Forward P/E
20.8x
Trailing P/E
31.7x
10-Year Average
17.6x
Premium / Discount
+18.2%
Fwd Earnings Growth
12.5%
Forward P/E based on consensus NTM earnings estimates. Historical averages represent 10-year rolling means. Trailing PE refreshed live via FMP at 5:51:01 PM. Sources: FactSet, S&P Global, Bloomberg consensus, Financial Modeling Prep.